Market Watch

[PHANTASM]

I thought I would start a thread about the stock market for anyone who has opinions / advice / questions. Something less formal than a tutorial.

 

I am currently long on AMD and am waiting for the quarterly earnings report on July 15th to hopefully cash out when it spikes. Last time they had a good report (on April 15th 2010) it went up to $10 a share for a few days, then sank back down to ~$8. It is currently at ~$7.40. My plan is to hold till then and make about 30%. I don't usually hold stocks more than a few hours or days but I like AMD, I made a lot off them last year, and they have been relentless in releasing new products this year, so I am taking a chance on them.

 

Their last earnings report was "supposed " to be negative, but they reported a profit instead, so it is a gamble to say the least. The tech market has been down lately, obviously, but a good report will hopefully restart the magic of last year (they went from $4 to $9 in a couple months).

 

Once it breaks $8 I will set a 3% trailing stop order. This sells all my shares automatically if the stock drops more than 3%, but lets it keep rising indefinitely.

 

Anyway, that's my plan for this week.

 

 

[daredevil]

Good plan. I personally think it should go up. It should at least reach somewhere near 8.50$

[PHANTASM]

Wrong crowd I guess.

 

I should make a thread about how to mow yards and sell quarterbags for beer money instead lol.

[daredevil]

Wrong crowd I guess.

 

I should make a thread about how to mow yards and sell quarterbags for beer money instead lol.

 

Not everyone follows stock market Around 80% of registered members are still below 22.

[PHANTASM]

Not everyone follows stock market Around 80% of registered members are still below 22.

 

I know. I was being controversial / provocative, and no one cares. Funny.

[thundercunt]

I have stock in F|A, Pfizer, and Wall-Mart.

 

 

[O.H.-Kenobi]

It seems to me like you've got a pretty good handle on it, which is why I didn't post earlier.

 

The stop order is an excellent idea - tech stocks are known for being variable in the best of times, much more so in the economy the way it is today.

 

Regardless, I think the actual chances of AMD going bust are comparatively low (it's pretty solid), so I think you've got a pretty safe investment - you're not going to lose your shirt. Which, to my way of thinking, is the first consideration.

[NoGooD]

Wrong crowd I guess.

 

I should make a thread about how to mow yards and sell quarterbags for beer money instead lol.

 

GL on getting some of these guys to mow a yard.

 

I may not always post, but I do always read your threads Phan.

 

On a side note, I have a program which allows me to type "F|A" into the browser and takes me directly to the site. However if I mistype it, it takes me to this site.

 

I'm still not sure about the slush fund bit you wrote. I'm sure someone's filling out credit card applications like crazy right now.

[PHANTASM]

GL on getting some of these guys to mow a yard.

 

I may not always post, but I do always read your threads Phan.

 

On a side note, I have a program which allows me to type "F|A" into the browser and takes me directly to the site. However if I mistype it, it takes me to this site.

 

I'm still not sure about the slush fund bit you wrote. I'm sure someone's filling out credit card applications like crazy right now.

 

I mowed a lot of yards when I was a kid. Thought that was just a stage everyone went through.

 

Do you have yahoo set as your default search provider? It thinks you are looking for "F", which is Ford Motor Company's stock symbol. That's why it is taking you there. Try a different default search provider (Google, msn, etc).

 

A slush fund is a critical step in setting up a daytrading account. Nobody can save money anymore. But you can always borrow it. It's called Keynesian economics. It's the same thing Obama does, and everyone likes Obama, right?

[daredevil]

I mowed a lot of yards and moved a lot of bags when I was a kid. Thought that was just a stage everyone went through.

 

I never did that although I like gardening. I did worked in catering, because tip's where always good. 50-100$ tip/event and we also used to get different types of good dishes.

 

I used to make more money when I was working at catering compare to lab network admin. Good old days. I miss them!

 

Back on topic, what you think about Intel ones? I did buy few when it was around 19.

[PHANTASM]

I never did that although I like gardening. I did worked in catering, because tip's where always good. 50-100$ tip/event and we also used to get different types of good dishes.

 

I used to make more money when I was working at catering compare to lab network admin. Good old days. I miss them!

 

Back on topic, what you think about Intel ones? I did buy few when it was around 19.

 

Intel (INTC:NYSE):

 

http://research.scottrade.com/public/stocks/news/news.asp?docKey=100-191l1966-1

 

 

 

If the Chinese buy it up then it will hold its price through the week until earnings are posted. Expect a drop after earnings are posted. Intel is posting earnings on July 13th, and AMD is posting July 15th, so there will be a lot of choppiness in both stocks until then. Unless they grossly exceed their expected earnings (that happens sometimes in the tech sector) then there will probably be a bit of a drop after the report comes out when everyone sells to take their profits.

 

I'm going to sell my AMD either Monday morning if the Asians buy it up on Sunday, or on Thursday right before the report comes out. Either time should be a good exit point.

 

Here is a story from 1998 about how Intel and AMD behaved when they both had high earnings, it's interesting because these things are cyclical so it helps understand how the earnings reports work in the tech sector:

 

http://news.cnet.com/All-eyes-on-Intel,-AMD-earnings/2100-1001_3-219942.html

[daredevil]

 

I'm going to sell my AMD either Monday morning if the Asians buy it up on Sunday, or on Thursday right before the report comes out. Either time should be a good exit point.

 

I like the idea.

[PHANTASM]

Bear Market Advice:

[copied from http://www.stockchartist.blogspot.com/]

 

 

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

10 Commandments to Invest By

 

I usually post original content but I came across the following "10 Rules for Surviving Bear Markets" by John Lansing (even though I've disagreed with John on this site before, like when he recommended shorting GLD on January 9, 2009, when it was at 83.92 .... today it is 116.55) from OptionZone.com. He wrote the rules and posted them, interestingly enough, on March 7, 2009, the weekend of the market's bottom.

 

While it may have been too late (and incorrect) to guide investors during the Financial Crises Crash and the terrific rebound out of it, the timing may be more appropriate today. I repeat it verbatim now because of all the discussion brought on by Friday's "Black Cross" (where the 50-dma crosses under the 200-dma) in the S&P and the prospect of further declines over the near-term future:

 

1.Good news in a bear market is like smoke in the breeze (i.e., soon dispersed): Don't buy into analyst upgrades or recommendations. These can kill you. Every person reading this has access to some kind of trading platform, trading tools or systems that afford instant access to the financial markets. Good news like upgrades in bear markets typically has about five minutes of fame.

2.Bear markets are not a time to learn how to "day trade": A bear market is not a good time to try to learn how to day trade in an effort to recoup losses -- no matter how many times you hear that "this is a traders' market."

3.Accumulation days (there may be three or more in a row) are shorting opportunities: OK, accumulation days are shorting opportunities, but resist being aggressive until the S&P 500 (SPX) shows a 3-day and 5-day moving average bearish cross. Remember that it's typically 50% market, 25% sector and 25% stock as far as direction. But some could argue that in bear markets it's 75% index, 15% sector and 10% stock.

4.Have sufficient, liquid funds: Over-leveraged and under-capitalized traders are also called "bear food." Make sure you're not edible. Reversal patterns mostly form in weak trends. If the trend that the market or stock you are watching has been strong, then chances are that any pause is just a consolidation before the next leg down.

5.There is no such thing as "safe sectors": Sure, each bear market brings sector rotation. But make sure if you are playing this game that you don't have the flexibility of wood. And when the music stops, quickly find a chair! What I'm saying is that you must be flexible so you are able to change with the markets. The best traders are those who are nimble and approach the markets without bias.

6.Your stop-losses are YOUR stop-losses: The pain of being down 8% in a bull market is no different than being down 8% in a bear market. If your risk tolerance requires you stopping out at 8%, then be consistent in any market you trade. It takes greater emotional balance to trade a bear than a bull. So, always manage your risk -- just remember that, in the markets, your money is always at risk. Great traders manage emotions and risk. Only you know your risk tolerance, and it's you who controls what happens between the keyboard and chair.

7.Bear markets are generally slow-moving affairs: However, stocks in bear markets can move much faster than you think, which is the reason that volatility rises drastically. But we need to keep the time we spend in a bear in perspective. Unfortunately, bear markets last much longer than most are willing to wait, and they move their money to the sidelines.

8.Market capitulation is very difficult to measure: Market capitulation is more a state of mind than a specific set of market conditions. Hence the market maxim, "Bear markets end when the last bull throws in the towel, not when bears turn bullish."

9.Bear markets drain emotional capital much faster than bull markets: Bear-market volatility will suck your energy at twice the rate of a bull. Rule: Take twice as many breaks from trading the bear as from trading the bull.

10.Have sufficient, liquid funds: Over-leveraged and under-capitalized traders are also called "bear food." Make sure you're not edible.

A Bear-Market Rally is Not a Bull Market. In general, we all want to be bullish, and are eager to see any upward market movement as a rally, even when it's not.....Regardless of your current opinion, you are best-served by feeling with your heart, while investing with your head. Are fear and greed driving your investment decisions right now, or are you in control of your emotions? If you're not sure, I'd recommend taking a step back and looking at the market from a different angle ... an unemotional one.

 

Print this out and save it above your monitor so you have it as a reminder as you place your trades.

 

[/endcopy]

[NoGooD]

I mowed a lot of yards when I was a kid. Thought that was just a stage everyone went through.

 

Could be. I owned a small yard business in high school with 35 lawns. I let someone buy me out when it began to interfere with my school work.

 

Do you have yahoo set as your default search provider? It thinks you are looking for "F", which is Ford Motor Company's stock symbol. That's why it is taking you there. Try a different default search provider (Google, msn, etc).

 

Nope....it's google. Either way it's always interesting to see how the market is treating Ford when I mistype.

 

 

A slush fund is a critical step in setting up a daytrading account. Nobody can save money anymore. But you can always borrow it. It's called Keynesian economics. It's the same thing Obama does, and everyone likes Obama, right?

 

 

We obviously don't hang around the same circles.

 

 

That's an interesting idea and I'll look further into it. I'm not so sure how it's how it will work out for Obama in the long run though.

Edited July 11, 2010 by NoGooD

[daredevil]

That's an interesting idea and I'll look further into it. I'm not so sure how it's how it will work out for Obama in the long run though.

 

Bush, made economy bad and Obama is making worse. To fix short term losses, Obama is going to make big time long term loss.

 

They need to lower down the expense, rather then printing more $$. There are few things Obama told to people and I don't see it happening:

 

1. Our Army will be out of Afghanistan. I don't see it happening.

2. We will have to pay less for Health insurance. In fact, I am paying more since 2010.

3. He is still give more bailouts and support to loosing companies AFAIK.

 

Also, somewhere I saw AIG made profit last quarter. Did they paid the money back? Not full, but at least a little?

 

PS Intel is making good amount of profit. Check there job openings and they also have new project going on. If you see any company has more job opening then usual, consider company is either making profit or they investing money on there next project.