Population Growth Rate and Mao

[PHANTASM]

Here is that story, since I tested it from my post and it says you have to be a subscriber and I doubt any of you guys subscribe to the Financial Times (yeah I like the news).

 

 

 

Chinese corn imports forecast to soar

By Javier Blas

 

Published: February 4 2011 11:34 | Last updated: February 4 2011 11:34

 

Corn prices – and with them, the price of meat – are set to explode if the latest import estimates from China are correct.

 

Last year, Beijing recorded its largest imports of corn since its disastrous crop of 1995-96. But this year could see further record buying. The US Grain Council, the industry body, said late on Thursday that it has received information pointing to Chinese imports as high as 9m tonnes in 2011-12, up from 1.3m in 2010-11.

 

EDITOR’S CHOICE

Commodities daily: Tackle food export bans - Feb-03.Food prices rise to fresh record high - Feb-03.Commodities daily: Agflation shock - Nov-29.US soyabean exports poised for big jump - Dec-10.Commodity super-cycle is back in full swing - Feb-01..If true, it means that the corn market is a lot tighter than even the most bullish traders imagine. The US Department of Agriculture, which compiles benchmark estimates of supply, demand and stocks, forecast Chinese imports at just 1m tonnes in 2011-12.

 

The most China has imported in modern history is 4.3m tonnes in 1994-95 and 3m tonnes in 1978-79. For most of the past 50 years, Beijing has been largely absent from the international market, as domestic production was enough to meet demand.

 

But Terry Vinduska, the chairman of the council, said after visiting China that “estimates given to us were that China is short of 10m-15m tonnes in stocks and will need to purchase corn this year”. He pointed to about 9m tonnes in imports. “We learned the government normally keeps stocks at 30 per cent but they are currently a little over 5 per cent, which may lead to imports of 3m-9m tonnes.”

 

Last year, China’s corn production suffered because of a drought. At the same time, the country’s demand is rising fast as the population consumes more meat.

 

It is not the first warning of forthcoming massive imports. Recently, David C. Nelson, at Rabobank, one of the world’s largest lenders to the global agribusiness industry, warned that because China’s animal protein industry is so large, the order of magnitude of China shifting to become a net importer of corn could possibly be measured in tens of millions of tonnes, and in just a few years time.

 

“We note that China could become a net importer of 25m tonnes of corn as early as 2015,” he said. Senior executives at trading houses took note of Rabobank’s forecast.

 

A degree of caution must be heeded on the estimates, however. The US Grain Council did not disclose where it got the information and Chinese food import policy is erratic. With corn nearly at a record high, the country could very well opt to further drawdown stocks.

 

But the forecast of record imports still need to be taken seriously. When China started to import soyabean back in 1995, few thought the country would today be buying nearly 60 per cent of all the global trade in soyabean.

 

Could it happen in corn? Most of the traders I have spoken to believe that China will become a big corn importer, although none believe it will follow the same pattern as in soyabean. Even so, 9m tonnes is a huge number. Enough to push corn prices above the 2007-08 record of nearly $7.65 a bushel. In early trading on Friday, corn was at $6.65 a bushel.

[darkfang77]

Lol, I think I lose

I'm not a history person, so correct me if I am wrong here. I want to take a different thread here.

The US are pretty against communism (Vietnam war, etc), they spent 20 years (from Wikipedia) in there. Can I ask why they didn't do the same in the Chinese Civil War?

 

Not really sure how to respond to the Chinese food problem, let's wait and see